THE NATION OF DESPERATION AND ILLUSION

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By Majur Laam Atong

As the peace draw in and war diminishes there is great hope and expectations in Juba that things will change for the better but in real sense there will be no such miracle to happen. First of all there is nothing going to change prices in the short run because the oil production output may increase but it price in the world market remain constant therefore return of Dr. Riek Machar will not usher in dollars but will increase government expenditure as it used to be in other previous governments.

There was a scenario of ignorant and extravagancy during the ten years period which created economic burden in the country, they elites neglect the other sources of avenues/ventures that would have increase the dollars inflows like investing in agriculture, forestry, fisheries, hospitality and tourism that might have increased hard currency (dollars) inflows hence making imports cheaper. Now South Sudan is one product export oriented economy which is crude oil and in fact South Sudan government is getting around $10 to $12 per barrel and the rest goes to Operating Companies and Sudan government as a cost of their pipeline
. The government monthly expenditure is estimated $500M and our economy GDP (outlook) is estimate at $3b therefore there is deficit of $3b in salaries, Operations Costs alone, don’t mention even development projects. This financial deficit set in what we called borrowing and foreign aids syndromes and political vulnerabilities as the foreign financiers imposed both economic and political interests. You shouldn’t be surprise when EU and other foreign countries condemned creation of 28 states by President because they are aware and know South Sudan government is economically and politically vulnerable to dance to their tunes otherwise that was unprovoked interference into our internal affairs
.
During the time of two governments of GOSS and GRSS research has it that the office of Vice President would be the first ( First VP ) exhausted FY budget in the first quarter of financial year and the rest are served with subsequent supplementary budgets or transfer of funds from other budget accounts to his office account. This time the expenditure under this office will triple as they returners will try to compensate them for the time they were out of the system
.
As mention early war will diminishes and this doesn’t mean 2 parties reduction in arms expenditure as the two will stockpile weapons due to fear of unknown and mistrust as usual. What are the implications of these scenarios on the economy is inflation, unemployment underdevelopment among other macroeconomic issues.

South Sudanese should tighten their belts the next government is for expenses and they shouldn’t expect much otherwise there will be more frustration than even before. There is nothing new the same people, same tactics/ploys as the SPLM-FD negotiated themselves back to the system and likewise to Uncle Dr. Riek Machar Teny Dhurgon (PhD). The beauty of R-TGNU is peace which is subject to commitment of fragmented SPLMs. In the thirty six months period there is an economic uncertainty because we don’t expect Foreign Direct Investment into South Sudanese economy due to uncertainty of what next after thirty six months since there is fear cultivated in minds of investors for years
.
Assumption that prices will reduce as the peace is usher in is an economic myth which will never become a reality in short run, therefore South Sudanese should control their expectations otherwise we will be disappointed again.

The views expressed in the ‘OPINIONS & ANALYSIS’ section of the Thejubamirror Post are solely the opinions of the writers. The veracity of any claims made are the responsibility of the author not this website. If you want to submit an opinion piece or an analysis please email us

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