In the heart of East Africa, a political drama of unprecedented stakes is unfolding. South Sudan, the world’s youngest nation, stands at a perilous crossroads as President Salva Kiir Mayardit prepares for what appears to be a stage-managed transfer of power to businessman Dr. Benjamin Bol Mel, a transition that threatens to plunge the country back into the chaos it has struggled to escape.
At the heart of this political machination is Dr. Bol Mel, a longtime business associate of President Kiir whose rise to power represents a blatant departure from South Sudan’s traditional leadership paradigms.
Through his network of companies, ABMC, ARC Resource Corporation Limited, and Winners Construction Company Limited, Bol Mel has established a commercial empire. This empire has been built upon single-source government contracts, which have allowed him to circumvent regulatory oversight and accumulate extraordinary wealth. Elevating him over veterans of both the Anya-nya-1 and SPLM/A liberation struggles sends a worrisome message, suggesting that business ties are now more important than patriotic service.
Dr. Bol’s track record inspires considerable doubt about his capacity to lead effectively. His handling of public resources, particularly in the construction of roads, is a clear indication of mismanagement and waste. Projects overseen by him are characterized by excessive expenditures and unfinished work, telling of a consistent prioritization of private gain over public welfare.
The extravagance of his displays of wealth in Dubai, including showering with a million dollars while a noteworthy portion of the South Sudanese population endures hardship, has heightened concerns about his decision-making abilities and ethical principles.
A meaningful revelation concerning Bol Mel’s character came to light during his dispute with Captain Deng Chagai Matet, President Kiir’s son-in-law. His refusal to repay a debt and subsequent bitter use of power to dismiss Deng Chagai from his position disclose financial irresponsibility and a willingness to act against the interests of even the first family. Why must President Salva Kiir trust such a man. He is already punishing his family before the leadership is handed over to him.
His actions, including reports of using wealth to interfere in personal relationships, engaging in infidelity, and demonstrating disrespect for citizens, notably by snatching their girlfriends through coercion or financial inducements, paint a picture of a man whose personal conduct contradicts the principles that defines a leader. Sex, lies and money are the combined greatest reason why a man falls. Bol Mel cannot not tame his appetite for these.
Like a master strategist from the Wars of the Roses, Bol Mel through President Salva Kiir Mayardit has orchestrated a systematic dismantling of potential opponents within South Sudan’s security establishment. Potential rivals to his rise to power, such as Gen. Akol Koor, ex-Director General of the National Security Service, Internal Security Bureau (ISB), Gen. Lual Wek Guem, former head of the Tiger Division, Gen. Aboud Stephen, the then Chief of Military Intelligence and many SPLM veterans, have been systematically eliminated from the system. We can see the pain inflicted on veterans in the speech of Gen. Garang Mabil.
To control key security positions, Bol Mel has installed his puppets, Gen. Akech Tong Aleu to head the National Security Service, Internal Security Bureau (ISB), Gen. Abraham Gum Makuach as commander of Tiger Division and Stephen Marshal the man tasked with all fabrications that will be undertaken as the Chief of Military Intelligence. This deliberate restructuring of power echoes historical patterns, where power concentrated in loyal hands typically heralded turbulent times.
To make matters worse, he is using the deep state to push for harsher punishments, including accusing Gen. Akol Koor of treason. This is an attempt to put him behind bars or scare him into rebellion. Gen. Akol Koor has made it clear that his commitment to discipline and loyalty to President Salva Kiir Mayardit and the Republic of South Sudan outweighs his personal desire to challenge authority, even when facing public humiliation.
With Bol Mel’s rapid pace of change, many events are unfolding, and perhaps the most worrying is the possibility of foreign military involvement in this transition. According to reports, Bol Mel has gained support from Uganda’s Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba, facilitated by National Security Minister Gen. Obote Mamur Mete.
The presence of 2,500 Ugandan military intelligence operatives in Gulu, purportedly set to be deployed to Juba, introduces a dangerous element to this succession plan. The unpaid SSPDF will be provoked and are likely not going to tolerate this planned invasion, they will possibly start with the inviters of the invaders. It is already known that Bol Mel through facilitation of the President of the Central Bank is paying the Ugandan troops and the SSPDF is deprived of this privilege alongside the civil servants. Payment of foreign forces in the expense of national army as effected by Bol Mel is unsafe for him. Another dimension is that he has instructed Gen. Stephen Marshal the Chief of Military Intelligence (CMI) to deploy armed Murle elements on Juba-Bor-Road, disguising them as cattle traders. These are early signs that Juba is going to be sealed off. The sealing off here means nobody will ever enter juba with arms or ammunitions unless permitted by the mentioned group.
The SPLM’s planned retreat to Rumbek appears intended to distract security forces from Juba, opening the door for Ugandan troops to take control of key locations. This situation closely resembles Uganda’s post-Amin era, where foreign military involvement turned political transitions into prolonged civil conflicts.
The concentration of power within Bahr el Ghazal, coupled with the silencing of voices from Upper Nile and Equatoria, is exacerbating regional divisions, a reality that Bol Mel’s failure to understand the existing power balance has only worsened. Prominent figures such as Dr. Riek Machar, Dr. Lam Akol Ajawin, and Dr. Majak D’Agoot are being pushed to the margins. Their conspicuous silence points to a brewing legitimacy crisis, effectively challenging Bol Mel’s authority.
The impending SPLM Political Bureau Meeting is expected to see a strategic sequence of events that will result in Bol Mel’s elevation to the presidency. This process will involve a Deputy Chairman stepping down in his favor, his appointment as Vice President, and lastly, President Kiir’s planned medical leave, ultimately clearing the path for Bol Mel to become president.
Taking on this role, Bol Mel would be in a position to drastically reshape the government through a targeted purge of key figures such as Finance Minister Dr. Marial Dongrin Ater, Chief of Defence Forces Gen. Santino Deng Wol, Inspector General of Police Gen. Atem Marol Biar, and Minister of Presidential Affairs Hon. Chol Mawut Ajongo. This is just the tip of the iceberg in terms of the potential scope of this purge.
This developments are chaotic and unpatriotic on the side of President Salva. They will invoke uncalled for anarchy. Similar to the Wars of the Roses, where well-intended plans for succession devolved into decades of conflict, South Sudan’s present course exhibits all the characteristics of imminent strife. Juba will be bloody unless the course of this events is reversed.
Throughout history, the combination of concentrated power, political and military scheming, and foreign involvement has repeatedly proven to be a potent recipe for instability. The historical records of both medieval England and post-Amin Uganda provide clear and unambiguous warnings against the dangers of engineered successions and the involvement of foreign military forces in internal power struggles.
Bol’s aspirations and Kiir’s endorsement of them place South Sudan at a crossroads, where the choices made over the next few months will shape the country’s destiny for years to come. As a matter of truth, this country stands at a critical stage, a dangerous prospect of succumbing to another cycle of violence.
The question of South Sudan’s future hangs in the balance: Can it break the pattern of violent succession, or is it destined to be another warning in the history of African political change? This answer could decide not only the future of a nation, but also the peace of a whole region.
As Bol Mel consolidates his authority, the echoes of past conflicts, including the Wars of the Roses and the tumultuous period following Amin’s rule in Uganda, serve as potent reminders of the consequences of failure and the pressing need to chart a new course.
© COURTESY OF THE TRUTHFUL BIG BOYS OF SOUTH SUDAN
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