By Dak Buoth
25 July, 2024 NAIROBI, Kenya — The Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-in-Opposition (SPLM-IO) has withdrawn from the Tumaini Initiative, a peace mediation effort, due to disagreements over its integration with the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS), SPLM-IO announced in a letter to the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) member states on June 19, 2024.
Launched on May 9, 2024, by President Dr. William Ruto, the Tumaini Initiative included the participation of several African Heads of State and other key political figures, including Mousa Faki, the outgoing Africa Union Commission Chairperson. Following this, agreements on principles and protocols were signed on June 16 and July 15, 2024, respectively.
South Sudan First Vice President Dr. Riek Machar, in his June 19 letter, stated, “The outcome of the Tumaini Initiative is expected to be an annex to R-ARCSS and not a stand-alone agreement.” This view has sparked debate regarding the future of the Tumaini Initiative, as no such annexation was stipulated in the declaration of principles.
The withdrawal of SPLM-IO on July 16, 2024, appears rooted in Machar’s desire for the Tumaini Initiative to complement R-ARCSS rather than replace it. This move has raised questions about SPLM-IO’s strategy and its implications for ongoing peace efforts in South Sudan.
Background and Implications
The Tumaini Initiative aimed to foster dialogue and peace among South Sudan’s warring factions, with the heads of delegations from SSUNA, SSOMA, NAS-RCC, and the R-TGoNU government pledging adherence to the initiative’s principles. However, Machar’s insistence on integrating the initiative with the struggling R-ARCSS has caused friction.
Critics argue that SPLM-IO’s withdrawal signals a reluctance to embrace new peace frameworks. Machar’s past grievances, including limited movement and underfunding, underscore SPLM-IO’s strategic retreat from the Tumaini Initiative.
Fear and Distrust
Several factors contribute to SPLM-IO’s apprehensions:
- Lack of Communication with Mediators: Machar’s strained relationship with President Ruto and Chief Mediator General Sumbeiywo exacerbates SPLM-IO’s distrust.
- Political Rivalries: The reconciliation of SSUNA and SSOMA leaders with President Kiir creates anxiety within SPLM-IO, fearing the return of former allies might undermine its position.
Strategic Withdrawal
SPLM-IO’s withdrawal can be seen as a calculated move to disrupt the Tumaini Initiative, reminiscent of past strategies employed by other opposition groups to hinder peace negotiations. This tactic aims to deny other factions the platform to gain regional and international support.
Path Forward
To salvage the peace process:
- Direct Dialogue: President Ruto should engage directly with Machar to rebuild trust.
- Inclusive Negotiations: SPLM-IO should participate as an independent entity within the Tumaini Initiative to avoid political sidelining.
- Unified Opposition: SPLM-IO must reconcile with SSUNA and SSOMA, recognizing the evolving political landscape and focusing on common goals rather than individual grievances.
The Tumaini Initiative, if properly navigated, holds potential for stabilizing South Sudan. However, the current impasse necessitates a renewed commitment to dialogue and compromise from all parties involved.
The writer is the National Chairperson of Legal Affairs in SSPM/A. He can be reached for comments via eligodakb@yahoo.com.
