Possible scenarios that may happen in South Sudan unless we are careful
By Hon Molana Juol Nhomngek
Since 2014 immediately after the outbreak of the Civil War on December 15, 2013 in South Sudan, the struggle to bring everlasting peace in the Country did not produce touchable results.
This is because the Peace i are not comprehensive enough and moreover are even imposed by the regional and international Communities that want peace to come and end the conflict once and for all in South Sudan.
Nonetheless, the resistance to peaceful resolutions to the Conflict have so far been resisted. The same resistance is still be faced by the Revitalized Agreement.
Those who are resisting the Peace to come to South Sudan have their own motivation which clouds their ability to analyze the future of South Sudan. Had they put aside their personal interests, they would have discovered that there are three possibilities that may happen unless they are careful and compromise for the benefits of South Sudan and South Sudanese.
These are the possibilities that may happen unless we are careful:
1. The conflict in South Sudan will never end unless the truth behind the conflict is discovered. This in other words, means that root causes of the conflict must be addressed and the current Revitalized Agreement has done that what is only needed is compromise.
2. If there is no compromise and the leaders keep on using war to maintain power, it will reach a point where the civilians may face the reality and rise against the Government. The symptoms are now clear with different groups calling for uprising against the Government. It is a matter of time for these voices to unite if the conditions are going to be bad for them. In such a scenario, the type of friend revolution of 1789 or American civil war may happen. It may even lead to more destruction of human lives and property.
3. The third scenario is that if what I have written in 1 and 2 above don’t happen, the other possibility is that South Sudan will remain in crisis for the next half a century due to different regional interests that will use internal Political differences to maintain their influence and turn South Sudan into battle field like DR. Congo, hunting ground for wealth and employment opportunities for their citizens supported by few individuals within South Sudan.
4. If the above possibilities may not come to pass, the second to last possibility will be that two regions of Upper Nile and Equatoria will demand independence separately and Bahr El Ghazal will continue to fight against secession wars for several years. Of course, they international Community will not allow them to independent but they will become source of long lasting instabilities.
4. Another possibility is that in the end if there is no viable solution to South Sudan conflict, the international Community may decide to either intervene and install their own puppet Administration or conduct another referendum to make people of South Sudan decide whether they remain independent Country or reverse and become part of greater South Sudan. This means that President Kiir like the former Governor of Gok State will become the first and the last President of South Sudan.